Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.094291 0.109507 0.125706 0.144164 0.164541 0.186275 0.211138
2024-10-27 0.067617 0.087777 0.110932 0.139178 0.172383 0.209861 0.255033
2024-11-03 0.055798 0.079746 0.109062 0.146834 0.193435 0.248280 0.316902
2024-11-10 0.043292 0.068202 0.100673 0.144733 0.201542 0.270925 0.360581
2024-11-17 0.036098 0.062048 0.097783 0.148426 0.216114 0.301247 0.414042
2024-11-24 0.027564 0.052310 0.088519 0.142276 0.216852 0.313481 0.444729
2024-12-01 0.023492 0.048428 0.086766 0.145804 0.230081 0.341748 0.496229
2024-12-08 0.021083 0.046727 0.087859 0.153162 0.248581 0.377296 0.557970
2024-12-15 0.016949 0.041261 0.082406 0.150227 0.252146 0.392584 0.593094
2024-12-22 0.012507 0.034214 0.073408 0.140900 0.245617 0.393372 0.608315
2024-12-29 0.010375 0.031172 0.070668 0.140965 0.252631 0.412925 0.649254
2025-01-05 0.009102 0.029651 0.070374 0.144845 0.265407 0.440854 0.702267
2025-01-12 0.007738 0.028322 0.071616 0.153765 0.290170 0.492281 0.797598
2025-01-19 0.005186 0.023199 0.064981 0.149008 0.294059 0.514886 0.855360
2025-01-26 0.004194 0.021804 0.065606 0.157259 0.319605 0.571158 0.964124
2025-02-02 0.002810 0.018325 0.060956 0.155133 0.327774 0.601521 1.036464
2025-02-09 0.002069 0.016508 0.059615 0.159055 0.346264 0.648381 1.134563
2025-02-16 0.001196 0.013162 0.053555 0.152597 0.345989 0.665563 1.188638
2025-02-23 0.000843 0.011882 0.052513 0.156317 0.363910 0.712220 1.288516
2025-03-02 0.000651 0.011310 0.053318 0.164061 0.389536 0.772144 1.410231
2025-03-09 0.000363 0.009400 0.049515 0.160974 0.394670 0.798535 1.480694
2025-03-16 0.000142 0.007053 0.043274 0.151158 0.386035 0.801375 1.514099
2025-03-23 0.000071 0.006055 0.041292 0.151226 0.396471 0.836540 1.599258